Omar Perez
Mother Nature, for the most part, spared the Caribbean her wrath last hurricane season. But if April's Colorado State University forecast comes to fruition, the region may not be as lucky.
The likelihood of at least one major hurricane, defined as a Category 3 or greater, to track through the Caribbean is 66%. That's quite a bit higher than the average probability of 47% from 1880 to 2020.
Overall, the forecast predicts 23 named storms in the Atlantic season, 11 of which may become hurricanes and five that could be major hurricanes with winds of at least 115 mph. It was the highest number of hurricanes predicted by Colorado State in its April forecast since it began doing its forecasts in 1995; the previous high was nine.
"This forecast is of above-normal confidence for an early April outlook," the CSU forecasters stated.
In much of the region, sea surface temperatures are climbing to record warmth levels. Couple that with the fact that the current weather pattern known as El Nino, which typically keeps storm formations at bay, is transitioning to a La Nina, which can enhance their development, and you can see why the forecast is what it is.
Lindsey Epperly, CEO of Jetset World Travel, said she doesn't think travelers put too much emphasis on a busy hurricane forecast.
"A majority of travelers are not even aware that it is hurricane season, but I think it's an advisor's job to inform them of the facts," said Epperly, expressing a personal preference for traveling to the islands at that time of year, when crowds are smaller and prices are lower. "Once we've informed them of the facts, then we can better gauge that traveler's level of concern, in which case we may proceed with exploring the entire Caribbean. We may stick to the areas outside of the hurricane belt, or we may change gears entirely if their fear of traveling during that time makes it a less enjoyable vacation-planning experience.
"It's all about a client's comfort level."
What to know about travel insurance
Travel insurers, meanwhile, are reporting increased sales in policies. Stan Sandberg, co-founder of TravelInsurance.com, said policy sales for Caribbean bookings from August to November, typically the most active portion of hurricane season, are up 30% compared with last year.
Among the destinations that have seen an increase in travel insurance purchases from TravelInsurance.com, according to Sandberg said, are Bonaire, the Bahamas and Puerto Rico.
Rajeev Shrivastava, CEO of the insurance marketplace VisitorsCoverage, also stresses the importance of purchasing coverage prior to the designation of a hurricane to ensure protection.
"Many travel insurance plans include coverage for natural disasters, meaning if you need to cancel your trip due to a hurricane, you will be able to recoup your trip's prepaid and nonrefundable expenses such as flight, hotel, and tour costs," he said.