WASHINGTON -- The acute pilot shortage that has plagued U.S. airlines since the post-pandemic resurgence of air travel has lightened up a bit. But it’s still a sharp constraint for the regional airlines that operate flights under the United Express, Delta Connection and American Eagle brands.
“I think it’s going to take us a very long time to get back to meeting the demand that’s out there in the regional space,” said Chip Childs, CEO of SkyWest, which operates regional aircraft flights for each of those brands as well as for Alaska Airlines.
This year, there is a shortage of approximately 14,300 pilots among North American airlines, according to a newly updated study by the consulting firm Oliver Wyman. That’s down from last year’s estimated shortage of 16,900 pilots, said Oliver Wyman partner Geoff Murray, who unveiled the study results last week at the Regional Airline Association (RAA) Leadership Conference here.
The total U.S. commercial airline pilot workforce this year is approximately 98,000.
Murray noted that the shortage would actually be 6,000 pilots higher if regional airlines were still flying the number of aircraft they did before the pandemic. Instead, U.S. regional aircraft flying has declined 36% in terms of scheduled hours since 2019.
In the process, according to RAA data, 14 small U.S. airports have lost all service, 41 airports have lost at least 50% of their service and 127 airports, representing 29% of all U.S. commercial airports, have seen a service reduction of at least 25%.
“This is devastating,” said RAA CEO Faye Malarkey Black. “I can’t emphasize enough how a community changes when it loses its access to air service.”
Not all those declines have been driven by pilot supply. Major U.S. airlines have also made strategic decisions to reduce their regional networks and devote a larger proportion of their resources to the more profitable flying of large aircraft. But that process has been accelerated by the pilot shortage.
Demand and supply
The Oliver Wyman data showing that the pilot shortage is less severe reinforces statements made over the past several months by large mainline carriers.
Southwest CEO Bob Jordan said in July that he expected to have a full slate of pilots by September, a milestone that would end approximately two years of pilot constraints for the airline.
Murray said the pilot deficit has decreased in the past year due both to reduced demand and increased supply.
Pilot demand has been driven down by the number of parked regional aircraft and production delays related to supply chain issues. Supply, meanwhile, has increased due to a bump in the number of pilots achieving certification to fly for commercial airlines. Through this August, the FAA had issued 7,526 Air Transport Pilot (ATP) certificates, which are the certificates required to fly for a commercial airline. That’s up 8% from the same period a year ago, according to an analysis from the Air Line Pilots Association (ALPA) union.
This year, Oliver Wyman expects 6,900 new pilots at North American airlines, countering 4,200 pilot retirements.
Yet, the pronounced pilot shortage continues in the regional sector, Murray said, because the larger airlines do most of their hiring from the regional ranks.
According to the Oliver Wyman analysis, 75% of the mainline pilots are hired out of the regional sector, with the remainder coming from business aviation and the military. The company estimates that 44% of the regional pilot workforce of 18,100 will get hired on at mainline U.S. carriers this year, including a whopping 59% of regional airline captains.
Indeed, captains are a particular constraint at SkyWest. Overall, the airline now employs approximately 4,300 pilots, down from 5,500 before the pandemic. But a lack of captains is the reason flying at the carrier is down 11% in terms of operational hours this year compared to last, SkyWest spokeswoman Marissa Snow said.
For now, there’s no end in sight for the shortage, according to the Oliver Wyman analysis. North American airlines will still be approximately 13,000 pilots short in 2033.
As the shortfall persists, disagreement over a measure that could ultimately help ease the situation has stalled negotiations over a five-year FAA reauthorization bill in the Senate.
Republican Sen. John Thune of South Dakota and independent Arizona Sen. Kyrsten Sinema want to enable tailored training pathways that could reduce by 250 the number of flight hours certain aspiring pilots must accrue to crew a commercial flight.
But committee chair Maria Cantwell, D-Wash., has refused to allow debate of that amendment in the hearing room.
Meanwhile, the House FAA reauthorization bill, which passed in July, includes an increase of the mandatory pilot retirement age from 65 to 67, another measure geared toward reducing the shortage.
ALPA opposes both of those measures, citing safety concerns. The union has also steadfastly argued that no pilot shortage exists, noting record pilot production numbers.
During a panel at the RAA conference, three airline industry investment analysts accused ALPA of intellectual dishonesty.
“Several hundred regional jets are grounded in the U.S. today, and there are cities that are losing service,” Deutsche Bank analyst Michael Linenberg said. “Guess what? That’s a shortage.”